‘Start to buy’: Panel at summit by PMS AIF World sees opportunity in the noise as Iran strike rocks sentiment

Market experts advise buying, not selling, in March. Israel-Iran strike seen as a non-event for equity markets Market experts advise buying, not selling, in March Small and mid-cap stocks seen near end of bear market Did our AI summary help? As news broke of Israel’s strike on Iran, three seasoned market veterans — Amit Jeswani of Stallion Asset, Pawan Bharaddia of Equitree Capital Advisors, and Radha Raman Agarwal of Swyom Advisors – spoke at the Crystal Gazing Summit, organised by PMS AIF WORLD, and shared their unfiltered views on how markets would react and what their strategy looks like heading into March. The Iran Strike: A Non-Event for Markets? Story continues below Advertisement All three panelists were remarkably aligned on this: the Israel-Iran development, while dramatic in geopolitical terms, is unlikely to cause lasting damage to equity markets. Jeswani called it a “known unknown” — an event that had been discussed and anticipated for weeks, and therefore already priced in by markets that are, as he put it, “too smart to not discount that event.” He drew a sharp contrast with COVID-19, which was a true “unknown unknown” that blindsided investors with an unquantifiable earnings impact. Bharaddia added an interesting twist to this argument: the uncertainty of whether the strike would happen at all was arguably more damaging to market sentiment than the event itself. “What markets don’t like is uncertainty,” he noted. “The last three weeks, we were having it blow hot, blow cold — that kept everybody on tenterhooks.” Now that the event has materialized, he argued, markets can at least begin processing what comes next with greater clarity. Agarwal concurred, noting that while a knee-jerk reaction is likely, it would be shallow and short-lived. The broader market, he observed, has already absorbed a significant correction over the past 18 to 24 months, leaving most of the bad news already factored in. What to Expect on Monday The consensus is that Monday will likely open with some weakness — but nothing alarming. Jeswani was the most direct, calling the event a “non-event” and drawing parallels with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where even Russian markets fell only 2-3%. He does not expect a significant cut when markets open. Bharaddia echoed this, saying any sentimental reaction on Monday would “phase out much sooner than later.” Agarwal preferred to wait and observe Monday’s developments before acting, but made clear he does not anticipate a deep or sustained fall. The message across the board: do not panic, do not liquidate, and do not mistake a sentiment-driven dip for a fundamental deterioration. Story continues below Advertisement The March Strategy: Buyers, Not Bystanders When asked point-blank how they plan to approach March, all three managers leaned firmly in one direction — buying. Jeswani, who currently holds about 13-14% cash, said this is an “outcome, not a strategy” — cash accumulated while waiting for the next bull market leaders to emerge. He believes the bull market may have started as early as February 1st, and expects sector leaders to become clear within four to eight weeks of that starting point. His plan is to be fully deployed by April. “Between March and April, we will be fully in,” he said without hesitation. Bharaddia said his firm is actively increasing allocations, describing current levels as “really, really attractive.” While he advocates staggered investing given the inherent volatility of the small and micro-cap space, the direction is clear — he is a buyer, not a seller. Agarwal, currently sitting at about 10% cash, said he plans to deploy it in a staggered manner with a target to be